Thematic Pillar Hub · 2 Published Briefings
monetary-policy institutional intelligence, quantitative benchmarks, primary regulatory filings, and market structure analysis from APAC Capital Brief. The Bank of Japan publishes a suite of core CPI indicator series to measure underlying inflation trends in Japan. This reference guide explains each indicator, its methodology, and its role in BOJ monetary policy deliberations.
Curated by Kenji Takahashi, CFA (CFA, Chief APAC Macro & Semiconductor Equity Strategist) · Fact-checked by APAC Capital Brief Institutional Review Board
The Bank of Japan publishes a suite of core CPI indicator series to measure underlying inflation trends in Japan. This reference guide explains each indicator, its methodology, and its role in BOJ monetary policy deliberations.
The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to pause rate hikes at its October 2026 meeting, with markets pricing less than a 10% probability of a follow-up increase after September's quarter-point hike. Investor focus has shifted to forward guidance, particularly signals from Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.
Core CPI is defined as Japan's Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food, which is volatile due to weather and seasonal factors. Core-Core CPI is defined as the CPI excluding both fresh food and energy components, providing a measure that is also insulated from global commodity price fluctuations. The Bank of Japan publishes both series on its research data portal (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/cpi/index.htm). Specific current readings were not available in the source snapshot provided for this article.
The Bank of Japan publishes its core CPI indicators under the Research Data section of its official website, accessible at http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/cpi/index.htm. The series are updated in alignment with Statistics Bureau of Japan CPI release cycles. The source snapshot provided for this article contained only the page title and no embedded data tables.
The BOJ uses multiple core CPI measures because no single exclusion-based index fully captures underlying inflation dynamics across all economic conditions. By publishing Core CPI, Core-Core CPI, Trimmed Mean, and Weighted Median variants, the BOJ's Policy Board can cross-reference different signals when assessing progress toward the 2% price stability target. This multi-measure approach is documented on the BOJ research data portal (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/cpi/index.htm), though specific methodology documents were not included in the rawContent provided.
Less than 10%, according to CNBC reporting dated 2026-10-28. This reflects near-unanimous market consensus that the FOMC will pause after September 2026's quarter-point hike.
The FOMC raised rates by a quarter-point — equivalent to 25 basis points — in September 2026 (Source: CNBC, 2026-10-28). This is the most recent tightening action referenced in the source material.
With the October pause already priced in at sub-10% hike odds, Warsh's post-meeting commentary is being monitored as a leading indicator of whether the Committee may resume hiking at November or December 2026 meetings. The CNBC source dated 2026-10-28 specifically identifies Warsh as the key figure for forward guidance interpretation.
